AfriForum warns landowners against the risk of a high winter wildfire season for 2026
AfriForum is calling on landowners, farmers and communities across South Africa to proactively prepare for the current wildfire season that continues until August. This follows the National Disaster Management Centre’s seasonal risk profile for the 2026 winter indicating increased wildfire risks in large parts of the country.
According to the National Disaster Management Centre, high to medium-high wildfire risk conditions are expected during the winter and early spring in parts of Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape, Gauteng, Limpopo and North West. Above-normal temperatures, dense vegetation and increased wind conditions are likely to contribute to an increased risk of wildfires during the coming months.
The report further indicates that windstorm hazards remain elevated in several provinces, including the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga. Strong mountain winds preceding cold fronts can further increase the risk of rapidly spreading and destructive veldfires.
In addition to the fire hazard, the National Disaster Management Centre also warns that certain areas remain vulnerable to flooding during the winter. Parts of the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern Cape may experience localised flooding due to intense rainfall and cut-off low-pressure systems, even as below-normal rainfall is forecast for some winter rainfall areas. These weather systems can cause heavy rain, strong winds and flash floods over short periods of time.
The seasonal outlook also points to the development of an El Niño weather pattern. Current forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions will strengthen by spring and continue through the summer. Historically, El Niño conditions are associated with warmer, drier and windier weather over large parts of South Africa, increasing the risk of drought and severe wildfires during the upcoming fire season.
“Large parts of South Africa have experienced excellent vegetation and veld conditions following the good summer rains. While this is good news for grazing conditions, it also means that there are now large amounts of combustible material in rural areas. In combination with above-normal temperatures, strong winds and the expected development of El Niño conditions, the risk of severe wildfires later in the winter and during the spring is significant,” says Tarien Cooks, Disaster Management Specialist at AfriForum.
“Landowners should make adequate preparations by maintaining firebreaks, removing excessive combustible material around homes and infrastructure, ensuring that firefighting equipment is operational and actively engaging with local fire protection associations. Early preparation can significantly limit the risk of losing homes, livestock, game, grazing and other valuable assets.”
AfriForum encourages residents, farmers and rural communities to follow weather warnings from the South African Weather Service and implement preventive measures before the peak of the wildfire season arrives.
